Benny and the Bets: Should focus go on current form or course form for Rocket Mortgage Classic?
Golfbet Roundtable: Picks and Predictions For 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic
Current form or course form? Where should your focus be when researching winners on the PGA TOUR?
It’s a question I am often asked by the casual bettor, and the easy answer is of course: both. You should pay attention to many things when trying to predict an outcome in a 72-hole event, but sometimes current form outweighs course form and vice-versa.
Let’s use this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic as a case study.
We have had five previous years of the tournament at Detroit Golf Club with Rickie Fowler as last season’s winner. Fowler’s best result at the tournament prior to his win was a T12 but he was coming off a missed cut in 2022. His form leading into the event though was four straight top 13s, three of which were top 10s.
Tony Finau won in Detroit in 2022 after a T53 in his only previous appearance but his form coming in was exceptional … he had just won the 3M Open the week prior.
Cam Davis, the 2021 winner, wasn’t really trending in either category. He had missed his first two cuts in Detroit and was coming off a missed cut leading into his win.
In 2020, Bryson DeChambeau’s win came after six straight top 10s – although they were split either side of the COVID-19 break. Still, three recent top 10s leading in. He hadn’t played the event prior.
And Nate Lashley was the inaugural winner in 2019 after coming off an unexpected T28 in the U.S. Open where he was T6 after the opening round.
To me, this suggest current form is weighted heavier than course form this week. And it makes sense because, basically, this will be a shootout. For all its charms, Detroit Golf Club is at the mercy of the TOUR’s talent pool. IF you can find someone with both, that’s a bonus.
We know it will likely take 20-something under to win this week, which means aggressive golf and plenty of birdies.
Scanning the current form of the field the following players have at least one top-10 or at least two top-20s AND have not missed a cut from their last four starts.
Akshay Bhatia, Joel Dahmen, Ryan Fox, Lee Hodges, Tom Kim, Maverick McNealy, Aaron Rai, Kevin Tway and Matt Wallace fit the profile. Those players are in the ultimate form, so it’s not surprising to see Kim (+1200) and Bhatia (+2000) as two of the favored players this week.
I have a slight concern that both players are facing their ninth and eighth successive weeks, respectively, of golf but as young stars, it’s not as big an issue as it may be for others.
I’ve got the cut-off for good form a little looser than above. For example, Taylor Pendrith has three top 23s in his last four starts and nothing worse than a T33. He is also a recent winner at THE CJ CUP Bryon Nelson – another shootout – and has the bonus of a T14 and T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic prior. Pendrith also ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and 24th in Par-5 Scoring.
And Cameron Young, coming off a T9 last week, put up his first decent performance in a while. I’m going to believe it is the start of a good spurt this summer. He was a former runner up in Detroit.
I’ve picked Aaron Rai out of the above list as my top-five choice this week, as he was also T9 in Detroit a year ago. He’s also seventh in SG: Approach and 10th in SG Tee-to-Green.
Outside of current form or course form look to nuggets like these this week:
All five winners were inside the top four of SG: Tee-to-Green in their win.
No winner was worse than 22nd in SG: Putting.
Around a quarter of all approach shots come from inside 125 yards, more than average weeks on TOUR.
The last three winners all were 12-under on the par 5s for the week, all five were at least 10-under on those holes.
Surviving the par-3 ninth and par-3 11th holes is critical, two of just four holes (par-4 sixth and par-4 12th) that have averaged over par for the field all five years.
Winners have seven or less bogeys on the week. Can’t afford to go backwards in a shootout.
Benny’s bets
Outright: Cameron Young (+1400), Taylor Pendrith (+2800)
Top 5: Aaron Rai (+500)
Top 10: Taylor Pendrith (+250)
Top 20: Chris Kirk (+200)