Draws and Fades: Look to Cam Davis, Erik van Rooyen to turn heat on in Detroit
Cam Davis sticks tee shot 4 feet from the hole at Rocket Mortgage
Soft conditions led to a scoring barrage today at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The field average was two-and-a-half strokes under par. Following a two-plus hour rain delay, the 74 men who made the cut played around fairway puddles and rain-soaked rough. Eighteen players sit Saturday night within five shots of the lead. Five may sound too far back, but those same 18 held a scoring average of 67.6 on Saturday.
There’s no doubt our two leaders feel the heat in Detroit. Akshay Bhatia and Aaron Rai are 17-under. Each knows they will need at least another 68 or better to win on Sunday. Shoot-outs are always interesting when you have so many in the hunt. Unlike Saturday where the field went off No. 1 and 10 in threesomes, this trophy parade will be your Sunday-standard twosomes off No. 1.
Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook:
+240: Akshay Bhatia (-17, T1)
+300: Aaron Rai (-17, T1)
+400: Cameron Young (-16, T3)
+650: Cam Davis (-16, T3)
+1400: Erik van Rooyen (-15, T5)
+1800: Sam Stevens (-15, T5)
+2200: Min Woo Lee (-14, T7)
+4000: Joel Dahmen (-14, T7)
+4000: Luke Clanton (-14, T7)
Believe it or not, Bhatia holds more PGA TOUR wins than anyone inside the top five. He has two in the last 11 months. Rai has two wins on the DP World Tour, the last coming in October of 2020. Next come the “Cams.” Cam Davis won the Rocket Mortgage in 2021. Tied with him one back is Cameron Young. Young has yet to win on TOUR and owns seven second-place finishes.
Now we are all locked in awaiting an epic Sunday sweat in Motown. Who will win this shoot-out? As I build out my Sunday bets, here is who I believe will get it done alongside those who will succumb to a little leaderboard gravity. That pressure-filled pull that grabs players and drops them down the board as the back-nine drama builds.
Draws
Cam Davis (+650)
The 2021 Rocket Mortgage winner is one stroke back. Cam Davis’ walk-off birdie on the 18th hole set the tone for what is to come on Sunday. Currently tied for second in the field strokes gained total, Davis leads everyone in birdies with 19. It’s obvious he is comfortable at Detroit Golf Club. Since winning, he has two more top-17 finishes on property.
This Donald Ross design holds a bit of nuance. Of those at the top of the leaderboard, he has the most positive experiences. Starting the week, we wanted excellent approach players and putters. Through three rounds, Cam is cleaning up in both categories.
Erik van Rooyen (+1400)
There are different types of familiarity that fuel our confidence. Erik van Rooyen shot 63 on a Sunday in Mexico last November to win the World Wide Technology Championship. The winning score there was 27-under. I doubt the boys in Detroit will go that deep, but it is going to take a low round to pull it off. Having just proved to himself he can go nuclear on a Sunday gives him great confidence.
Van Rooyen is driving the ball beautifully and that will be a tremendous advantage on Sunday. Only the amateur Luke Clanton is driving the ball better in the top 10. Attacking from the fairway has led to 17 birdies and 87% of his GIRs. Those trends will continue on Sunday allowing Erik to push his name to the top of that leaderboard.
Erik van Rooyen gets up-and-down from bunker at Rocket Mortgage
Fades
Aaron Rai (+300)
Aaron Rai ranks 55th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR. Those that bet him often to be an outright winner have witnessed his Sunday struggles. Rai is an incredible ball striker, but a bunch of mediocre final rounds have him 83rd on the PGA TOUR’s final-round performance rankings. In most cases, it has been the putter that lets him down. If Rai can convert a couple of early-birdie, mid-range chances as he did on No. 17 Saturday, maybe that trend can end. Until I see it for myself, he’s a fade in this Sunday birdie fest.
Cameron Young (+400)
The ball striking is just brilliant. Cameron Young is so talented when it comes to full-swing prowess. Unfortunately, he is the lowest-ranked putter in the top 10 after three rounds. Going into a Sunday where the putter will be needed, I find it very hard at his odds to believe the career trend will be any different. I know Young will be a multiple-time winner on the PGA TOUR, but his skill set is so much better for a tougher tee-to-green test.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award winning PGA Professional who covers the PGA TOUR and LPGA from a betting perspective. Founder of Read The Line, he is also published by Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News. Follow Keith