Benny and the Bets: Sprinkle small bets and enjoy John Deere Classic
Picking a winner in golf is a tough proposition in the best of times but golf bettors ride the rollercoaster nonetheless. When done responsibly, golf betting can provide a great companion entertainment option for the PGA TOUR.
There are extreme highs – like anyone who was on Cam Davis last week at +7000 to bust out of a mini-slump and grab his second Rocket Mortgage Classic title. And gut-wrenching lows – like all of the Akshay Bhatia bettors who looked winners until his first three-putt of the week came on the 72nd hole.
My advice this week is to all, but especially those of you who were on Bhatia either at +2000 pre-tournament or any of the other odds you could have snapped up during the week in Detroit. Even the seemingly great plus-money odds for him winning a head-to-head against Min Woo Lee died on that last putt.
Don’t chase your losses.
It is – but the emotional response to a close loss can often make bettors feel like they are so close, so let’s double or triple down the next time. That’s a fool’s errand. Especially when this week is another shootout on the PGA TOUR at the John Deere Classic.
With some of the sport’s biggest stars instead prepping for the upcoming Genesis Scottish and Open Championships, we have an opportunity week on the TOUR in the Quad Cities. While Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth are very well-known commodities, plenty of others in the field might not be on your week-to-week radar.
But you can get great odds on many players who might just surprise in a shootout. So rather than fret over a larger bet, perhaps pick one guy near the top of the board, place less than your usual unit size on him, and then sprinkle on the underdogs.
This way you can enjoy watching the depth of talent on the TOUR, with a little vested interest, but without the big sweat. And if you hit, you’ll really be smiling.
In an effort to figure out who might be worth a small wager, we can look at a handful of key stats. Data like Strokes Gained: Putting, Rounds in the 60s, Birdie or Better Percentage and Greens in Regulation have proven predictive at TPC Deere Run.
We know that Sepp Straka was the only player to shoot an over-par round at the John Deere Classic and go on to win. With rain predicted this year, the ability to come back from a deficit will be even tougher.
Players who have finished in the top 10 over the last five tournaments at TPC Deere Run have had over 88% of their rounds in the 60s. So I am going to this stat and combining it with SG: Putting and recent tournament form for my chalky selection.
Denny McCarthy (+2200) has been sixth in the last two seasons here, is second on TOUR in SG: Putting and a respectable 39th on TOUR in Rounds in the 60s. His runner-up results over the last 13 months or so at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (2023) and the Valero Texas Open have shown he has the ability to win against big opposition.
Now we have the “chalk” pick out of the way, let’s turn our attention to the underdogs. I’m looking to get a card of 10 players this week, with the majority coming from the sweet spot on the odds board of +5000 to +9900.
Tier +5000 to +9900: The Sweet Spot
Ben Griffin (+5500): Griffin hasn’t played at TPC Deere Run before but a recent runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open plus the fact he’s fifth on TOUR in Rounds in the 60s give me a reason to cheer him on.
Mark Hubbard (+5500): Hasn’t missed a cut in 19 starts this year. Is 18th for Rounds in the 60s and as my colleague Rob Bolton points out, he’s 3-for-3 at TPC Deere Run since 2021 with a T13 in 2022, a T6 last year and a scoring average of 67.44 in his last nine rounds.
Patrick Rodgers (+6600): Back in 2017 I was onsite to see him almost win the tournament he holds very dear. That runner-up result is his best and he can sometimes try too hard to succeed in front of his faithful fans, but a win here would be a popular one.
Neal Shipley (+6600): The low amateur at the Masters and the U.S. Open started his PGA TOUR career last week as a professional with a T20 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Can he keep the summer love rolling on?
Andrew Novak (+8000): Three top 10s in three starts earlier this season plus top 20s in his last two starts has me feeling like the guy who ranks 16th in GIR this season, 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 25th in SG: Total. He’s 14th in Approaches inside 100 yards and Proximity in general.
Joel Dahmen (+8000): In this case, I’m just rooting for the story. Dahmen is a lovable character who has slowly built some form of late with a T10 and T25 in his last two starts. The latter came last week thanks to a poor Sunday as he was in the mix.
Ben Silverman (+9000): The Canadian is sneakily 31st in SG: Total this season and 13th in SG: Putting. His lack of Driving Distance won’t hurt as much this week leaving his GIR game and putting to shine.
Tier +10000 to +19999: The Longshot
S.H. Kim (+15000): A T4 at THE CJ CUP Bryon Nelson is the highlight of the season for the Korean but at 20th in SG: Putting and 22nd in Rounds in the 60s this guy could surprise people.
Tier +20000 or more: So you’re saying there’s a chance
Wesley Bryan (+40000): Full disclosure, Bryan has missed his last three cuts at the John Deere Classic. But he was T3 in 2017 and T8 in 2016 and he opened 68-67 last week before a serious fade on the weekend. He will have the YouTube crowd in his corner.