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Bolton: Deere chasers also hunting spots for The Open Championship

Unlike last year but just like many years prior, the John Deere Classic is again part of The Open Qualifying Series for the final major of the season that will be contested in two weeks. The top two, not already exempt into the field of 156 at Royal Troon, will gain entry.

Previous versions of the provision restricted access to one golfer inside the top five or the top three inside the top 10 at the conclusion of the John Deere. Today’s language opens it to all who make the cut, but that’s superfluous because . With at least 65 promised to make the cut, the two qualifiers are guaranteed to record a top 20 in the Quad Cities.

Everyone always is playing for something but that’s a critical carrot for many projected to contend for victory this week. While a win secures The Open exemption, it’s not required, so look hard at the Top 5 markets for this subset of the field.

Cherry-picking targets not yet in The Open from only my , below is my short list of targets.

Davis Thompson (+450 for Top 5)

Aaron Rai (+350 for Top 5)

Sam Stevens (+700 for Top 5)

There’s nothing about that list that will surprise you, but in the context of The Open exemption, it should embolden you to make a decision, which, of course, is my job even if you abstain.

I don’t align with cynics who think that professional golfers look ahead and ignore what’s directly in front of them, otherwise, none would bother to make the effort to compete now. (Not to mention that focus is singular as it concerns the John Deere. With no exemptions for The Open on the line last year, Sepp Straka took the title already having qualified for the major.) However, if you’re inclined to buy into that narrative, those three red-hot PGA TOUR non-winners will quench your thirst. Just don’t shut out any of the 18 while you’re taking a swig.

Weather

Happy holiday! At least in spirit. Potentially troublesome conditions could spoil outdoor fun, including the opening round on the Fourth of July. There isn’t agreement in multiple models, so it very well could be a little bit of ado about nothing.

Friday is when things could get interesting. Potentially strong winds from the west (prevailing) will challenge balls in the air. The tradeoff is cooling temperatures that will remind fans that spring ended just a couple of weeks ago. The early-late draw is the early favorite but not enough to consider stacking in DFS.

Saturday is setting up to be the best day by far, so scoring should reflect it.

As noted in the Power Rankings, the threat of rain and storms reemerges for Sunday’s conclusion. Therefore, don’t be surprised if tee times are earlier than usual so as not to disrupt planned travel for those headed to the Genesis Scottish Open.

Power Rankings wild card

Jordan Spieth (+210 = Miss the Cut) … He’s a two-time winner of the tournament who hasn’t returned since taking the title in 2015, and he’s in no-man’s land on the betting board. For a top 20, he’s just +115, but he’s gone nine straight starts without a top 25. So, the no-play is a right move in favor of investing in sharper angles but consider a sliver of a unit for him to fall short and get an early move on his transatlantic trip.

Other notables

Jason Day (+170 = Miss the Cut) … It’s hard to get excited about the Aussie this week. He hasn’t appeared at TPC Deere Run in 13 years and his most recent outings resulted in respective results of T43, T33, MC and T44. Because his irons are the weakest links in his bag, he’s better suited for a track on which par is of value, not a shootout where hitting greens in regulation is the priority to hang.

Patrick Rodgers (+250 = Top 20) … Arguably the quietest among successful non-winners. He’s hung up a trio of top 10s this year but his most recent performance that’d fulfill this finish was a T16 at the Travelers Championship. Yes, it was a limited-field Signature Event but TPC River Highlands gave him the room to go low and keep it floored across these three weeks. He settled for a T31 in Detroit but he sat T10 after three rounds before stumbling home with 76 on a windy day. He’s been a regular at TPC Deere Run where he was the runner-up in 2017.

Patrick Fishburn (+450 = Top 20) … Not a notable in the traditional sense but he deserves to be singled out. The PGA TOUR rookie is making his tournament debut, but that’s been the narrative throughout the season and it hasn’t prevented him from finding a groove reliable enough to deliver two top 20s and another pair of top 25s in his last six starts. Most recently and on the heels of a T17 at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas Wichita Open, he finished T25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic by attacking flag sticks (third in GIR) and sinking everything he could. Learning PGA TOUR greens is a rite of passage but at 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 24th in greens hit, he’s more than fine in setting tables, but he’s also an impressive 25th in scrambling. The analysis of that data suggests that he struggles in avoiding big numbers, but the kickback for a reasonable expectation is too tasty to dismiss.

Tap-ins

PARLAY: Eric Cole, Beau Hossler and Kevin Yu (+250 = All to Make the Cut)

Joel Dahmen (+300 = Top 20)

Ryo Hisatsune (+100 = Top 40)

Sungjae Im (+160 = Top Asian)

Michael Kim (+320 = Top 20)

Ben Kohles (+130 = Top 40)

Justin Lower (+130 = Top 40)

Michael Thorbjornsen (+105 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

Will Gordon … This is his first PGA TOUR start since the WM Phoenix Open almost five months ago. He appeared twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in June and missed both cuts. Details of his absence have not been released, but last Friday on , he wrote that it was “unplanned.” Whatever the case, he’d presumably be equipped with a medical extension in 2025, if necessary. Easy does it with him in all formats until he sheds the rust.

David Lipsky … Withdrew during his second round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, citing a back injury. It dropped him to 5-for-17 on the season. His only top 40 on his own ball was a T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge at the end of May. Currently 160th in the FedExCup.

Alejandro Tosti … A sore wrist forced him to withdraw during his second round last week in Detroit. It wasn’t specified which wrist was injured and he hadn’t competed since a T17 at Colonial Country Club. The 28-year-old from Argentina has had more downs than ups during his rookie season, but he’s 113th in the FedExCup.

Jimmy Stanger … Recently acknowledged on  that he’s been treating golfer’s elbow in his right elbow. Like most PGA TOUR rookies, he also had planned on pegging it at the RBC Canadian Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic until it flared. Now he’s hoping to play four straight. At 121st in the FedExCup, qualifying for the Playoffs would be a boon, especially after not competing at all in June and having missed six of his last seven cuts extending back into late March.

Notable WDs

Patrick Cantlay … This would’ve been his tournament debut and he likely would have been the favorite to win. Instead, it’s a second straight week off since he went T3-T5 in consecutive weeks at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship, respectively. Now ninth in the FedExCup.

Cam Davis … This is the first time in his six seasons on the PGA TOUR that he’s withdrawn after the commitment deadline, but he has a very good reason in that he emerged from the pack with victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on Sunday. The rub is that he’s not currently exempt into The Open Championship. That leaves next week’s Genesis Scottish Open as his last chance to qualify for the major. Of course, that’s only if he commits and sticks with it.

Taylor Montgomery … Returned to action last week in Detroit with a T44. After opening with 65, he shared that he sat out the previous seven weeks due to a . Andrew Landry dealt with impingements in both shoulders a couple of years ago, but Montgomery’s affliction is seemingly unprecedented. Montgomery is 99th in the FedExCup, so he’d need to step on it to qualify for the Playoffs, but he’s in a good position to manage his playing time to retain position inside the top 125 at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall.

Membership notes

Luke Clanton … No, he’s not a PGA TOUR member, but he’s seemingly on the fast track. The soon-to-be junior at Florida State is fresh off a T10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It was worth one point in . The focus on the attention here is to remind you that amateurs are not eligible for top-10 exemptions into the next open. So, his spot in the John Deere Classic officially is via a sponsor exemption. And if you are curious, amateurs have been included in determining cut lines since the 2016-17 season.

Lanto Griffin … If he doesn’t withdraw before his tee time in the opening round, this will represent the last start via a . To fulfill its terms, he needs 199.965 FedExCup points for which no worse than a solo second (worth 300) would yield. Short of that, he would erase the deficit for conditional status (23.171 points) with a 33rd-place finish worth 23.5 points. Although the 36-year-old is 9-for-12 on the season, he hasn’t cracked a top 33 since mid-October. If that drought continues, he’d tumble into Category 32 of the  on Past Champion status.