Prop Farm: Mixed feelings on Jordan Spieth while Nick Dunlap pops for bettors at John Deere Classic
The Fourth of July weekend kicks off in Silvis, Illinois, with the John Deere Classic. A classic indeed as this has been a heavily supported mainstay on the PGA TOUR since 1971, with TPC Deere Run playing as the host course since 2000.
This ought to be our very own “Signature Event” here in the Prop Farm, right? This is the week this column has been waiting for! Tractors, plows, mowers, blades and scrapers, cutters and shredders — all kinds of farm equipment in the heart of farming country. John Deere has been churning out winners on TOUR for decades. Let’s see if they can help us dig up a few this week inside the Prop Farm.
Many of the TOUR’s most recognizable names are taking the week off and it is certainly understandable given the run of events leading up and what now lies ahead in the Genesis Scottish Open followed by the final major championship of the season, The Open Championship. With all of that however, arguably the very most recognizable name in the game, Jordan Spieth, is here in the field for the first time since 2015.
Spieth made the John Deere Classic his maiden TOUR win — as many players have — as a 19-year-old in 2013. He turned the trick again, winning in 2015. Here he is, back again, headlining the field in 2024. At the betting window, Spieth’s return is garnering mixed reviews.
“He is responsible for our highest ticket count percentage in the outright winner market at 8.4%,” said Drew O’Dell, senior data analyst at BetMGM. “Spieth represents our second largest handle percentage at 7.5% and is our second largest overall liability.”
No different for Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata in New Jersey. “Spieth is the most bet in terms of handle and ticket count. He’s also been getting bet on in his matchups.”
Senior Manager at Mandalay Bay, a BetMGM Sportsbook in Las Vegas, Tristan Davis compared Spieth to another Texas favorite. “He’s like the Dallas Cowboys. We are going to lay him every week whether he is in form or not,” said Davis. “Spieth always goes around in the red for us pre-tournament.”
The mood is very different elsewhere here in Las Vegas, however. “No one cares for Jordan Spieth right now (or lately),” said veteran golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman. “After releasing our outright openers, he’s actually drifted to a higher price,” Sherman explained.
No sign of Spieth activity for Hall of Fame bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich either. “Maverick McNealy, Denny McCarthy, and Davis Riley are drawing heavy action in the outright market,” said the Las Vegas native.
As a fan, I’d love to see Spieth find success at the John Deere Classic once again but as a bettor, I stayed away. A 13-time winner on TOUR, Spieth has just two wins in the last seven years. I did land on another of the favorites though in Sungjae Im. I also played some long shots to win this week in Adam Svensson, Daniel Berger and Joel Dahmen.
One player seems to be popping up just about everywhere this week. “The matchup with the most steam has been Nick Dunlap over Keith Mitchell,” said Bogdanovich. This was echoed by Seamus Magee, a sports trader at BetMGM. “Dunlap looks sharp in his matchup over Luke Clanton. He’s gone from +110 to -105.”
“Aside from the favorites, we’ve taken a decent chunk of money on Dunlap in the outright market as an outsider,” Magee continued. “His outright price moved from +4500 to +3300, so I’d say there is definitely some sharp interest in Nick Dunlap this weekend. He’d be a loser for us if he makes a run.”
I took a hard look at Dunlap this week off of his top-10 finish last week in Detroit. It was hard not to notice him last week but the truth is, he’s been a bit inconsistent as of late. He was 66th out of 70 players two weeks ago at the Travelers Championship and missed the cut at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. He did finish 12th however, at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. I didn’t want to fall trap to betting on only what I had seen most recently. The bigger picture kept me staying away from Dunlap this week in Illinois.
In line with Bogdanovich, Magee also noted that bettors are piling on, against Mitchell at his shop. “Sharps like Davis Thompson over Keith Mitchell in a tournament matchup. He opened -125 and is now -145.”
Magee offered up one final morsel, and no surprise, they’re on the favorites. “Sungjae Im and Aaron Rai have virtually all of the First Round Leader money and it’s pretty even between the two as far as who is attracting more money.”
Farm through the information, check the weather reports, fertilize anything that piques your interest, ultimately plant the seeds you feel are most likely to harvest and run like the wind to the window — because nothing runs like a Deere.