Draws and Fades: Can Robert MacIntyre chase down Ludvig Åberg in front of home crowd?
That was me in this space – and I didn’t miss by much, sadly! Ludvig Åberg continues to pace the field at the Genesis Scottish Open, shooting a third-round 65 to increase his lead from one shot to two, this time over last year’s runner-up Robert MacIntyre. Åberg continues to look the part, having made just four bogeys all week without a single round above 65 on the par-70 layout, but the chase pack behind him is formidable: Adam Scott, Collin Morikawa, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im and defending champ Rory McIlroy all start the final round inside the top 10 and within five shots of the Swede.
Updated odds to win Genesis Scottish Open (via BetMGM)
-150: Ludvig Åberg
+500: Robert MacIntyre
+1200: Adam Scott, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy
+1600: Sungjae Im
+2000: Sahith Theegala
+4500: Antoine Rozner
+5000: Erik van Rooyen
+10000: Matteo Mannasero
So how will things shake out from here, as Åberg looks for his first win of the year? Here is how I see the field heading into Sunday at The Renaissance Club, as I stubbornly dig my heels in against one of the game’s brightest talents:
Draws
Robert MacIntyre (+500)
Maybe I’m a sucker for a good storyline, but I can’t pass up an opportunity to grab some Bobby Mac stock as he looks to do one better from last year’s near-miss. MacIntyre’s third-round 63 was the best of the day, and importantly it got him into the final pairing alongside Åberg. This means he’ll be in position to potentially hit the tournament’s final shots, as opposed to last year when he posted a number and could only watch as McIlroy went one better.
Robert MacIntyre buries 42-foot eagle putt at Genesis Scottish Open
MacIntyre surely feels more comfortable at home, but he also seems looser since winning the RBC Canadian Open last month. It meant that the entirety of the focus this week wasn’t on the one that got away 12 months ago. He gained a whopping 3.701 shots on the field on Approach Saturday, and another crisp iron performance will likely ensure that he stays within reach of the Swede. He starts two shots back but only one other player (Scott) will begin the day closer than four shots – it means that while some of the contenders might feel the need to press on the early holes at Renaissance to create some momentum, he’ll feel less urgency and can allow the round to come to him.
Should he be within a shot or two down the stretch, he’ll surely enjoy a bit of a boost from the home crowd that’s hard for oddsmakers to effectively quantify.
Sahith Theegala (+2000)
Admittedly I regret not backing Theegala when he was still sitting at +5000 after a solid 66 in the opening round, but this price is still enticing given there are only three players above him to start the final round. Theegala has gotten better each day on the greens, topping out with a third-round 66 where he ranked second in the field in SG: Putting. It made up for the fact that he lost ground to the field with his irons, a trend he’ll need to turn around Sunday to have any chance of winning. But if he does, the 26-year-old could be well-positioned to turn what would be his sixth top-10 finish of the season into his second victory in less than a year.
Fade
Ludvig Åberg (-150)
I am a man of principle, even if sometimes to the detriment of my bankroll. I have faded Åberg after each of the first two rounds, expecting some scoring regression that still has yet to rear its head. So I can’t back him at this price, having passed on him at +650 and +175 over the past two days, but I would certainly feel in a good spot had I picked up an Åberg ticket along the way. He’s 16th or better in all four main Strokes Gained categories and shows no signs of slowing down.
Ludvig Åberg’s Round 3 highlights from Genesis Scottish Open
Still, a victory in Scotland will mean bucking his recent scoring trends. Åberg is only 71st in Round 4 scoring average on TOUR this year, and he hasn’t broken 70 on Sunday since the Masters. He won’t need to put up another sub-65 round to take home the trophy, but anything around 70 will surely leave the door open for one of the contenders behind him to take it from him.